Focused Thinking
Technology
Due to various macro and micro issues (US-China trade war, US fed aggressive rate hike, sluggish IT demand, Intel CPU shortage), there has been a slowdown in demand from 2H18
4 min read | January 2019
Economics
As we approach 2019, we see a slowdown in economic growth rates across the region, but we can also expect some structural changes in the way investors view Asia, such as the China market. Traditionally, investors have looked at China in the context of Asia ex-Japan. However, our projections suggest China will be the biggest component of Asia-Pacific, superseding Japan as the biggest market in the region by 2023. Jim McCafferty, Head of Equity Research AEJ, talks about the forecast of the equity markets in 2019.
2 min video | December 2018
Emerging Markets
We believe the performance of Asia FX/local markets over the coming year can be categorized into three episodes.
0 min video | December 2018
Central Banks
Lower oil prices have created a positive environment for India, but we are downbeat on the economic outlook as we expect the economy to transition from a growth sweet-spot in 2018 to a soft patch in 2019. India economic outlook 2019.
1 min video | December 2018
Economics
We believe Korea’s economic cycle will enter and remain in a contraction phase in 2019-20, as we expect real GDP growth to slow from 2.7% in 2018 to 2.5% in 2019 and further to 2.3% in 2020 – below our estimate of the economy’s potential growth of 2.8%. More on our Korea Outlook here.
2 min video | December 2018
Economics
As the ASEAN-5 emerge from a difficult 2018, we see a divided growth outlook in 2019. Indonesia and the Philippines, in our view, will be bucking the global trend with accelerated GDP growth, while Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand, will all be slowing due to weaker exports and structural constraints.
2 min video | December 2018
Economics
As the Chinese saying goes, “After endless mountains and rivers that leave doubt whether there is a path out, suddenly one encounters the shade of a willow, bright flowers and a lovely village. (山重水复疑无路，柳暗花明又一村)”, China’s economic condition is expected to face a difficult H1 2019 before the rebound in H2.
4 min video | December 2018
Economics
Our 2019 GDP growth forecasts are not too different from the streets – while we are more downbeat on China, India and Malaysia, we are more positive on Indonesia and the Philippines.
3 min video | December 2018
Economics
Oil prices have fallen sharply. This drop, if sustained, will have a greater impact on emerging markets than developed markets.
3 min read | November 2018
Economics
Since the escalation of US trade protectionism this year, increasingly centered on China, a US-Sino trade friction is a lose-lose proposition for the world economy, especially for Asia, home to some of the most open economies in the world.
7 min video | November 2018
Central Banks
Since the 2008 global financial crisis, major changes have taken place in Asia central banks’ reaction functions. Many have demonstrated a strong commitment to inflation targeting and domestic price stability, while some others are choosing between counter-cyclical and pro-cyclical policies.
5 min read | November 2018
Emerging Markets
Computing architecture is advancing owing to memory hierarchy innovation. While the performance of processors and storage continues to improve, the gap between their performances widens.
3 min read | November 2018
Central Banks
Current account deficits in Indonesia and the Philippines are not necessarily a bad sign; equally, current account surpluses in Northeast Asia are not necessarily a good sign. The key is what is driving them.
4 min read | October 2018
Economics
Euroyen bonds offer size and speed for banks seeking regulatory capital. Are more deals on the way?
4 min read | October 2018