Focused Thinking
Economics
Goldilocks economic conditions of strong growth and low inflation and the hunt for yield mean that most investors remain optimistic. But in our three podcasts below, Nomura economists point out that there are good reasons to be cautious.
11 min podcast | May 2018
Emerging Markets
A continued rise in oil prices would divide emerging markets by economic performance. The macroeconomic cost to large net oil importers with weak economic fundamentals can be disproportionately larger than the benefit to net oil exporters
2 min read | May 2018
Economics
BRI should deliver an economic win-win for China and the countries it covers; China will also gain geopolitically. What are the benefits and risks for participating countries?
4 min read | April 2018
Emerging Markets
Four potential events this year could lead to an emerging markets pricing snapback: a US bond market selloff, the global unwind of quantitative easing, a China growth slowdown and the risk of a trade war.
3 min read | April 2018
Economics
Trade has played a critical role in the development of emerging market (EM) countries. But as we discuss in our video, the increase in protectionist rhetoric in recent years threatens to stall or even reverse globalization. How will EM countries cope?
2 min read | April 2018
Economics
Technology has transformed the global economy in the last decade and made it easier to transfer knowledge. Now it’s giving emerging markets a competitive advantage, allowing them in some cases to be more agile and innovative than developed economies.
1 min video | April 2018
Focused thinking
In this study, our economists assess the impact of US trade protectionism, centering on China. The goal is to examine which countries and industries would ultimately bear the brunt should the US step up trade protectionism.
1 min read | March 2018
Economics
Despite a number of challenging setbacks this year, India looks like it is now positioned to realize its potential and rightfully retain its title as ‘the world’s fastest growing major economy’ for the next few years. Home to roughly one-fifth of humanity, India is trying to reform the informal segments of its economy and build solid governance frameworks that cut across its 29 states.
3 min read | March 2018
Economics
M2 growth has fallen sharply in China since mid-2016 and has recently recorded consecutive record lows. Although the validity of M2 growth as a liquidity measure has been undermined by thriving shadow banking financing in recent years, it is likely that M2 growth will remain a valid indicator of aggregate money supply.
2 min read | March 2018
Economics
In February, we hosted our third annual Global Emerging Markets Seminar in London, bringing together cross-asset clients, industry thought leaders and Nomura’s emerging markets (EM) expertise from Latin America, CEEMEA and Asia.
1 min video | February 2018
Economics
The National Pension Service (NPS) is Korea’s social security reserve fund. It was created in 1988 to support the retirement benefits of its citizens. Asset allocation ultimately determines the long-term investment performance of any pension fund. We explore five reasons why the NPS will become more ambitious in accelerating its allocation shift to overseas assets, particularly equities.
3 min read | February 2018
Economics
A forecast of Asia’s sweet spot of solid growth, strong capital inflows, tame inflation and low interest rates could stretch into 2018, underpinned by a durable global tech upcycle, continued quantitative easing by the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan and still-loose regional macro policies.
2 min read | December 2017
Economics
What will China do to avoid following the Japanese bubble in the 80s and 90s? What level of US protectionism can we expect on Asian economies in 2018?
5 min video | December 2017
Central Banks
Asian central banks are yet to follow the Fed’s rate hiking cycles even though many Asian policy rates are at historically low levels. But this could start to change.
2 min read | November 2017