Focused Thinking
Emerging Markets
Four potential events this year could lead to an emerging markets pricing snapback: a US bond market selloff, the global unwind of quantitative easing, a China growth slowdown and the risk of a trade war.
3 min read | April 2018
Focused thinking
In this study, our economists assess the impact of US trade protectionism, centering on China. The goal is to examine which countries and industries would ultimately bear the brunt should the US step up trade protectionism.
1 min read | March 2018
Economics
Despite a number of challenging setbacks this year, India looks like it is now positioned to realize its potential and rightfully retain its title as ‘the world’s fastest growing major economy’ for the next few years. Home to roughly one-fifth of humanity, India is trying to reform the informal segments of its economy and build solid governance frameworks that cut across its 29 states.
3 min read | March 2018
Economics
M2 growth has fallen sharply in China since mid-2016 and has recently recorded consecutive record lows. Although the validity of M2 growth as a liquidity measure has been undermined by thriving shadow banking financing in recent years, it is likely that M2 growth will remain a valid indicator of aggregate money supply.
2 min read | March 2018
Japan in focus
In a time of global economic and political uncertainty, Japan’s relative stability stands out. After more than two decades of slow growth, the country continues to face many challenges.
6 min read | March 2018
Economics
A forecast of Asia’s sweet spot of solid growth, strong capital inflows, tame inflation and low interest rates could stretch into 2018, underpinned by a durable global tech upcycle, continued quantitative easing by the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan and still-loose regional macro policies.
2 min read | December 2017
Economics
Rising interest rates present challenges for both investors and corporates. However, there are a variety of cost-effective solutions available, according to Matthew Reader, Head of Fixed Income Structured Products and Jonathan Rogers, Head of Rates & Hybrid Structuring, EMEA.
6 min read | November 2017
Economics
Over the past 30 years real interest rates in the UK and other developed economies have been on a long-term downwards trend. This has supported the valuations of many assets, including house prices. With real interest rates predicted to rise gradually over the next decade or two, precisely the opposite (a ‘decapitalisation’, or a fall in real house prices) could happen and we believe real house prices could be 20% lower by 2030.
2 min read | September 2017
Economics
The expansion of shadow banking in China was driven by banks' risk appetite to pursue high returns against a backdrop of slower economic growth, economic rebalancing and behind-the-curve regulation of the sector. As China’s capital market continues to mature, the key for regulators will be to minimize and control the risks that shadow banking poses.
4 min read | September 2017
Economics
Using Confucius' theory of human life stages, we compare stages of economic development of India, China, the US and Japan.
3 min read | September 2017
Economics
Our Asia economists present their scorecard of 23 Emerging Markets on foreign direct investment attractiveness and confirm India and ASEAN’s advantage over other Emerging Markets due to multiple push and pull factors.
11 min podcast | August 2017
Economics
In their recent ‘Asia Special Report’, our economists expect a decoupling from the Fed and no rate hikes until H2 2018. They explain this by using three proprietary tools to help improve ability to forecast headline and core inflation for 10 Asian countries.
3 min read | August 2017
Technology
Since mid-2016, the FinTech industry in China has gone through its early stage hype to what is now a process of “survival of the fittest”. At the moment, we are again on the verge of a breakthrough in the FinTech field, with blockchain and AI taking the lead.
4 min read | May 2017
Volatility
Recent geopolitical volatility has had dramatic repercussions in the financial markets. The Brexit negotiations between the UK and EU have caused sterling to plummet to lows not seen in years, and protectionist rhetoric from the US has sent shockwaves through global FX markets and lifted interest rates to 5-year-highs.
4 min read | January 2017