Focused Thinking
Economics
Damocles is based on a noise-to-signals approach in which we use eight key indicators to predict currency crises in 30 emerging market (EM) countries; this approach has correctly predicted 67% of the 54 crises since 1996.
3 min podcast | July 2019
Economics
The ongoing and escalating US-China trade friction is no doubt negative for the world economy.
2 min read | June 2019
Economics
5 min read | June 2019
Central Banks
The downward pressure on the renminbi since last June is a function of market sentiment rather than the trade dispute, with the slowing of China's growth last year driven entirely by domestic factors.
5 min read | June 2019
Central Banks
The biggest risk currently facing the global economy is the lack of sufficient tools – both fiscal and monetary – available to policymakers to counter another downturn.
4 min read | June 2019
Economics
Our main scenario is that recession and additional policy response will be avoided
3 min read | June 2019
Economics
We found that a sustained rise in oil prices affects emerging markets more than developed markets, and can drive major differentiation in EM economic performance. In the event that oil prices continue to rise, there are likely to be clear winners and losers in EM.
2 min read | May 2019
Economics
In view of a slower economy, overseas exposure has naturally become the key differentiator that will help home appliance makers arrest the growth slowdown, despite our cautious take, on the effectiveness of the forthcoming nationwide incentive package on home appliance sales.
2 min read | April 2019
Economics
While Beijing’s policymakers are trying to boost growth by ramping up monetary and fiscal stimulus, the last thing they want is a rapid rise in inflation.
2 min read | April 2019
Economics
While household debt outstrips incomes across the country, is the UK unusual among its peers?
2 min read | April 2019
Central Banks
2 min video | April 2019
Economics
2 min video | March 2019
Economics
On March 8, 2019, some of our top alpha generating analysts came together to share their latest views for the coming 2Q19 quarter in different industries including, energy, transportation, gaming and technology, to name a few.
13 min podcast | March 2019