Focused Thinking
Economics
We expect the Asian exports downcycle to hit its lowest point in Q2, but the shape of recovery is uncertain.
3 min read | May 2023
Economics
More cash from the past three years, medical tourism, and high-intensity care to prop up expansion.
2 min read | May 2023
Central Banks
In this MacroBrew fireside, we discuss whether the ECB will really defy market pricing and look to raise rates above 4% this year, and what risks we should watch out for in Europe in 2023.
18 min video | April 2023
Central Banks
We discuss the US debt limit and what economic and monetary policy impact the uncertainty could have, as well as political risks and what it means for FX and rates markets.
47 min video | April 2023
Economics
Slower pace of inflation is driven by lower underlying inflation momentum and helped by base effects.
3 min read | April 2023
Economics
We present our framework on growth cycles and the intersection between Asia’s inventory and final demand cycles.
2 min read | March 2023
Central Banks
Our Cross-Asset Macro Strategist discusses whether the strong US data is a macro game changer.
42 min video | March 2023
Economics
With the ECB far from done on raising interest rates and government debt levels higher than they were before the last sovereign debt crisis, this is an issue at the forefront of many investors’ and no doubt central bankers’ minds.
3 min read | March 2023
Economics
We raise our 2023 GDP growth projections slightly, but a services-driven recovery in China and the US, and a higher-for-longer Fed are not as positive for Asia.
3 min read | February 2023
Central Banks
Our Chief China Economist from the Asia economics team discusses whether China’s reopening is running full steam ahead.
28 min video | February 2023
Economics
Nomura’s Hans-Peter Schoech, Head of Structured Rates Trading EMEA, and Ali Khan Head of Rates Options Trading, EMEA and North America explain how the uncertain macro environment has created interesting opportunities for convexity hedging.
3 min read | February 2023
Economics
Our analysis suggests developed market economies are more at risk of hard landings this time than emerging market economies, a break from the usual pattern.
3 min read | February 2023
Economics
We have a central forecast of a 15% fall in UK house prices by mid-2024. We explore some of the upside and downside risks to this forecast.
3 min read | January 2023