Focused Thinking
Focused Thinking
Economics
Nomura’s Hans-Peter Schoech, Head of Structured Rates Trading EMEA, and Ali Khan Head of Rates Options Trading, EMEA and North America explain how the uncertain macro environment has created interesting opportunities for convexity hedging.
3 min read | February 2023
Economics
Our analysis suggests developed market economies are more at risk of hard landings this time than emerging market economies, a break from the usual pattern.
3 min read | February 2023
Economics
We have a central forecast of a 15% fall in UK house prices by mid-2024. We explore some of the upside and downside risks to this forecast.
3 min read | January 2023
Central Banks
In this episode, we discuss European growth and the ECB policy outlook.
27 min video | January 2023
Annual Outlook
We expect 2023 to bring into focus a nascent recession, with pronounced weakness across a broad range of economic indicators
12 min read | January 2023
Annual Outlook
Our forecasts remain among the most pessimistic for euro area growth. We are forecasting a recession to last six quarters, beginning in Q4 2022, with a total GDP contraction of 2.5%. Though there are signs from recent surveys that the fallout from the energy crisis could be milder – especially if lower gas prices persist.
4 min read | January 2023
Central Banks
In this episode of our Fireside Chats podcast series, we talk with Rob Subbaraman, Global Head of Macro Research, and Sonal Varma, Chief Economist India & AEJ, on the 2023 outlook.
33 min video | December 2022
Economics
80 min video | December 2022
Economics
Nomura’s Japan economists and strategists outline what’s on the horizon as the country opens up.
5 min read | December 2022
Central Banks
In this episode, we discuss this week's ECB and BOE meetings, and their views against a growth and inflation backdrop.
18 min video | December 2022
Annual Outlook
Recessions in the US and Europe should lead to growth disappointments across Asia early in the new year, but once the dust settles, the region should lead the recovery.
3 min read | December 2022
Economics
Our early warning model of EM exchange rate crises shows Egypt, Romania, Sri Lanka, Turkey, Czech Republic, Pakistan and Hungary are at risk
2 min read | November 2022