Focused Thinking
Central Banks
The world remains in the grip of Covid-19, but the pandemic can also serve as a catalyst for change that can shape the world for decades to come.
3 min read | July 2020
Economics
Damocles is based on a noise-to-signals approach in which we use eight key indicators to predict currency crises in 30 emerging market (EM) countries; this approach has correctly predicted 67% of the 54 crises since 1996.
2 min read | April 2020
Economics
In this episode of our Fireside podcast series Jordan Rochester and our Chief China Economist Ting Lu discuss the outlook for China.
24 min podcast | April 2020
Economics
Our Chief Euro Area Economist George Buckley and FX Strategist Jordan Rochester discuss what the future holds for Europe under lockdown.
19 min podcast | April 2020
Economics
Our weekly update on the global economic impact Covid-19 has had on GDP, and provide their base, good and bad scenarios.
3 min read | April 2020
Economics
The top market moving events that should be on your radar. Including the US Presidential election, trade talks, rate cuts & QE, Brexit and budgets, and green shoots in market survey data.
5 min video | January 2020
Central Banks
Global growth appears set to bottom out. However, we expect 2020 to be a year of global growth consolidation than a full-fledged recovery.
17 min video | January 2020
Economics
We expect Japan to remain on a path of “steady but slow” economic growth in 2020.
1 min video | December 2019
Economics
We have been downbeat on the global economic outlook, primarily due to our views on US-China trade frictions. Prior to the trade truce in Osaka, we established our base case in which the US imposes 25% tariffs on all Chinese imports and China retaliates before the end of the year. We stand by this forecast as tariff threats continue to escalate.
2 min read | September 2019
Central Banks
The major theme that we are expecting for the second half of 2019 is something the Japanese call “Naibu Henka”, which translates to “internal change”.
3 min video | July 2019
Central Banks
Central bankers step up to the plate as the tug-of-war between monetary easing and rising business uncertainty is set to intensify.
5 min read | July 2019
Economics
Damocles is based on a noise-to-signals approach in which we use eight key indicators to predict currency crises in 30 emerging market (EM) countries; this approach has correctly predicted 67% of the 54 crises since 1996.
3 min podcast | July 2019
Economics
The ongoing and escalating US-China trade friction is no doubt negative for the world economy.
2 min read | June 2019