Focused Thinking
Nomura’s key researchers, industry experts, investors, and economists explore the latest global macroeconomic trends that will impact financial markets.
Economics
Owing to the recent dollar move, we revisit the main drivers and forecasts for LatAm FX in H2 2018. We have identified the following five key drivers which are likely to continue to be important in terms of currency performance in the second-half of the year.
1 min read | June 2018
Central Banks
We held our 15th annual Nomura Investment Forum Asia (NIFA) from June 4 to 7, 2018 in Singapore. Hear from some of our key speakers with highlights from the conference.
2 min video | June 2018
Economics
As banks savor the possibility of deregulation, many are anticipating a ramp up in new lending. While this optimism may feel good in the moment, it’s important to keep in mind a lesson from history: when legislators make decisions in highly regulated areas, unintended consequences often result.
4 min read | May 2018
Economics
Upcoming presidential elections in Brazil will continue having a key role in local asset prices. Therefore, a clearer understanding of what the market is pricing in with regard to the presidential election outcome (and the implications for the approval of long-awaited pension reform) will be key for trading Brazil over the coming months.
2 min read | May 2018
Economics
A forecast of Asia’s sweet spot of solid growth, strong capital inflows, tame inflation and low interest rates could stretch into 2018, underpinned by a durable global tech upcycle, continued quantitative easing by the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan and still-loose regional macro policies.
2 min read | December 2017
Economics
Rising interest rates present challenges for both investors and corporates. However, there are a variety of cost-effective solutions available, according to Matthew Reader, Head of Fixed Income Structured Products and Jonathan Rogers, Head of Rates & Hybrid Structuring, EMEA.
6 min read | November 2017
Economics
Over the past 30 years real interest rates in the UK and other developed economies have been on a long-term downwards trend. This has supported the valuations of many assets, including house prices. With real interest rates predicted to rise gradually over the next decade or two, precisely the opposite (a ‘decapitalisation’, or a fall in real house prices) could happen and we believe real house prices could be 20% lower by 2030.
2 min read | September 2017
Economics
In their recent ‘Asia Special Report’, our economists expect a decoupling from the Fed and no rate hikes until H2 2018. They explain this by using three proprietary tools to help improve ability to forecast headline and core inflation for 10 Asian countries.
3 min read | August 2017