Focused Thinking

Articles

Economics

Asia: Low Inflation is Here to Stay

Disinflation is underway in Asia, with inflation falling within central bank targets across most countries.

3 min read | March 2025

Central Banks

What's on the horizon for the global economy?

Our weekly updated overview highlights the key releases of global economic market data from around the globe and provides an economic outlook for 2025 by region.

3 min read | March 2025

Central Banks

How Trump’s Tariffs May Impact European Growth

US tariffs are likely to hamper European growth rather than cause an inflationary problem, making it more likely that European central banks further lower rates.

4 min read | February 2025

Annual Outlook

US 2025 Outlook: Trump’s Policies to Shape the Path Ahead

The policies of the incoming Trump administration are likely to drive the outlook for growth and inflation in 2025. We expect a ramp-up in tariffs early next year that leads to a pickup in inflation and slower investment growth partly offset by an extension of the Trump tax cuts and deregulation.

9 min read | January 2025

Annual Outlook

Euro Area 2025 Outlook – Shifting from Inflation to Growth

The ECB’s focus is shifting from high inflation to worries about anemic economic growth. We increasingly believe the consumer-led recovery is unlikely to materialize. Consequently, we expect the ECB to lower rates to below neutral to support the economy

8 min read | December 2024