Focused Thinking
From hard policies to trade routes, the causes and effects of volatility are connected across the planet. To recognise the opportunities and risks, know how to pick the triggers to watch from the grey swans.
Economics
The cost pressure from tariffs is likely to push up the prices of both imported finished goods and domestically produced goods through the supply chain. We use an Input-Output table analysis to estimate the magnitude and composition of the cost-push shock.
4 min read | May 2025
Central Banks
Our weekly updated overview highlights the key releases of global economic market data from around the globe and provides an economic outlook for 2025 by region.
3 min read | May 2025
Economics
President Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement was more severe than expected. We have revised our inflation forecasts higher, our growth estimates lower, and continue to expect the Fed to remain on hold in the near term
3 min read | April 2025
Economics
The private credit market is rapidly evolving, with new players, products and rules set to help it reach a projected $2.64tn by 2029.
3 min read | March 2025
Economics
As investors weigh up whether US equities can defy gravity for another year, buying quality and selling junk stocks offers a hedge in the event of a downturn.
3 min read | February 2025
Rates
Regulatory drivers combined with higher rates are reshaping a corner of the derivatives market
4 min read | December 2024
Economics
Interest rate rises triggering opposite effects in the euro versus the dollar volatility market have created new investment opportunities.
3 min read | October 2024
Economics
The shift by local governments from “helping hands” to “grabbing hands” should be taken seriously.
4 min read | September 2024
Central Banks
We have seen an overall slowdown in long-term GDP growth across different global economies in the last 15-20 years and, in our long-term view, this trajectory will continue.
6 min read | September 2024
Economics
Midstream energy infrastructure, space exploration, electric vehicles and health tech are themes of the future that can potentially enhance absolute returns.
4 min read | July 2024
Volatility
Calmer FX markets, liquidity fragmentation and the legacy of the pandemic are among the factors fuelling a new wave of algo usage.
3 min read | June 2024
Economics
Economies around the world are recovering from the pandemic shock at varying tempos.
7 min read | June 2024
Economics
The combination of higher debt levels with higher interest rates and higher risks including geopolitical risks, is tailor-made for accidents.
3 min read | June 2024
Economics
Assessing China’s hidden trade with America.
3 min read | May 2024